A Cautionary Note about Robert Shiller’s CAPE

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CFA Digest
February 2011 | Vol. 42 | No. 1 | 2 pages
Source: CFA Institute
Stephen E. Wilcox, CFA
Thomas M. Arnold, CFA (Reviewer)

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Abstract

The author evaluates why the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE)may be biased, including changes in the composition of the U.S. Consumer PriceIndex, tax treatment, and earnings recognition over time. Because the CAPE iscompared with a long-run mean (data starting in 1871), the changes may makecomparisons with the historical CAPE (or measures based on the historical CAPE)inaccurate.

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Topics
Economics
    :
  • Relationship of Economic Activity to the Investment Process
|
Equity Investments
    :
  • Equity Market Valuation and Return Analysis
|
Financial Statement Analysis
    :
  • Financial Reporting Quality
  • ·
  • Ratio and Financial Analysis
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