Rethinking the Relevance of Historical Averages in Portfolio Optimization

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Investment Risk and Performance Feature Articles
November 2012 | Vol. 2012 | No. 1
Source: CFA Institute
Mirko Cardinale Marco Navone Andrzej Pioch

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Abstract

This study reassesses the evidence and the practical relevance of long-horizon predictability of asset returns. We investigated whether predictability patterns can be profitably exploited and potentially replace the conventional approach used in the industry of extrapolating from historical samples. The analysis indicates that forward-looking models relying on steady-state equations for equities and initial yields to maturity for bonds are better predictors of the long-run direction of markets than naïve historical averages. Using a long-term U.S. sample (1926–2010) and relatively simple dynamic asset allocation strategies, we also found that predictability translates into significantly better risk-adjusted performance of strategies relying on forward-looking inputs.


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Topics
Equity Investments
    :
  • Equity Market Valuation and Return Analysis
|
Portfolio Management
    :
  • Asset Allocation
  • ·
  • Portfolio Concepts from Capital Market Theory
|
Quantitative Methods
    :
  • Time-Series Analysis
|
Risk Management
    :
  • Portfolio Risk Management
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