Qualitative Judgment vs. Model-Driven Thinking

CFA Institute Magazine
October 2017 | Vol. 28 | No. 3
Source: CFA Institute
Martin Fridson, CFA



"Academic economics is full of smart people doing stupid things," writes investment strategist Daniel Nevins, CFA, borrowing an expression from a former colleague. In Economics for Independent Thinkers: A Practical, No-Nonsense Guide to Understanding Economic Risks, Nevins recounts his evolution from quantitative analyst to thoroughgoing skeptic about the application of quantitative methods to economics. Although practitioners may be interested in Nevins' critique of model-driven economic forecasting, the real value for investors lies in the historical-based methodology he offers as an alternative.

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  • Economics:
    • Relationship of Economic Activity to the Investment Process
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