Financial Analysts Journal 04 Nov 2022 Volume 79 Issue 1
Redefining the Optimal Retirement Income Strategy
This paper introduces a cohesive series of models designed to improve retirement income projections. The framework can produce guidance that differs from the advice generated by models that use more basic assumptions.
This paper introduces a cohesive series of models designed to improve retirement income projections. First, the retirement income goal (i.e., liability) is decomposed based on assumed spending elasticity (e.g., “needs” and “wants”). Second, spending is assumed to evolve throughout retirement using a dynamic withdrawal strategy leveraging the funded ratio concept. Third, optimal strategies are determined using an expected utility model based on prospect theory, which also yields a client-friendly outcomes metric. Overall, this framework can result in advice and guidance that is notably different than models using more basic (and common) assumptions, especially approaches relying on probability of success-related metrics.
About the Author(s)
David Blanchett, CFP, CFA, is the head of retirement research for Morningstar Investment Management. He provides research support for the group’s consulting and investment management activities, primarily in the areas of financial planning, tax planning, annuities, and retirement plans. Mr. Blanchett also serves as chairman of the advice methodologies investment subcommittee. He holds a bachelor's degree in finance and economics from the University of Kentucky, a master's degree in financial services from The American College, and a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.