U.S. Investment Professionals Bullish on Market Performance Post-Election
CFA Institute, the global association of investment professionals, conducted a survey of its U.S. member base to identify their views on the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the investment profession. The survey solicited member views on the potential effect on client portfolios, the value of the U.S. dollar, and investment management firms in the next 12 months, following the election on November 8, 2016.
- Over half of members (51 percent) expect a positive impact on business at investment management firms with only 13 percent expecting a negative impact
- 85% of respondents anticipate a moderate or sharp increase in bond yields, and 62% anticipate a moderate or sharp increase in U.S. equities
- Overall, 49 percent of respondents believe the impact of the elections on client portfolios on a one-year basis will be positive or very positive with 21 percent anticipating minimal to no impact
“In light of significant uncertainty in the run up to the election, this positive forecast from our members is a good barometer of what investment professionals expect within the industry in the next year,” says John Bowman, CFA, Managing Director, Americas at the CFA Institute. “As we navigate through coming changes, the views of our members offer a snapshot of their sentiment regarding the impact of the election on their clients’ portfolios, U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar.”
More than 3,800 investment professionals participated in the survey by answering questions regarding the impact the election will have on the economy in the next year.
Thirty-eight percent expect the value of the U.S. Dollar will appreciate by less than 10 percent, with 27 percent expecting there to be little change and 25 percent expecting it to decrease by 10 percent or less.
According to members, industry segments that will see a positive impact as a result of the election are financials (80 percent), energy (72 percent) and industrials (65 percent). Industry segments that could see a negative impact are utilities (38 percent), real estate (32 percent) and information technology (32 percent).
Fifty-three percent of respondents indicate they do not expect to restructure their portfolios given the results of the election.
About the survey
The survey of 3,891 investment professionals in the U.S was undertaken between 10 and 14 November 2016.