When renewables outpace coal: A turning point, but not the full story

By Paul Moody

A recent report from Ember marks a historic milestone: for the first half of 2025, globally, renewables overtook coal as the largest source of electricity generation.

According to Ember, solar and wind together met 100% of the additional electricity demand in that period, even nudging fossil fuel use slightly lower. But as insightful observers caution, that headline masks a complex and uneven global picture.

China, the United States, and India are the countries with the highest total greenhouse gas emissions. China is the largest emitter, followed by the US and India, and these three nations together account for over half of the world's total emissions.

On the one hand, developing countries, notably China and India, drove the surge. China reduced fossil generation by ~2% while ramping up solar and wind. India too added capacity faster than growth in electricity demand, enabling reductions in coal and gas use.  On the other hand, the US and EU, struggled to keep pace. In those jurisdictions, electricity demand grew faster than renewables, and fossil generation (coal and gas) actually increased.

A separate IEA forecast offers further perspective: it has halved its projection for US renewable capacity growth this decade, in part reflecting current US policy uncertainty. That adjustment underscores how policy regimes, and not just underlying technology, remain central to whether clean energy can scale broadly.

This moment is rightly called a “crucial turning point” by Ember. But turning points are inflection points, not endpoints. This energy shift will require sustained capital, adaptive policy, and strategic deployment.

The shift toward renewables is fueling a surge in infrastructure and clean energy real assets, a domain where private and institutional capital can play a pivotal role. As we’ve noted at CFA Institute, the green transition is creating opportunities in power, grids, storage, renewables, and more.

Technology alone isn’t enough though. The US example shows that even in a mature economy, renewable growth can slow when policies are uncertain. That’s why interoperability of standards, stable incentives, and credible investor signals are essential.
As clean deployment accelerates in parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America, capital will seek those growth zones. Regions that lag behind in permitting, grid readiness, or policy clarity may lose out.

The transition injects volatility, especially where legacy assets are stranded or regulatory environments shift. But for investors who can manage that risk, alpha opportunities will emerge, whether in grid tech, storage, demand flexibility, or new business models.

At CFA Institute, we are committed to helping professionals understand, engage in, and lead in this transition through education, standards, and collaboration.

This is more than a milestone. It’s a moment to prove that capital, when mobilized wisely, can help power a just and resilient transition.